Consequence Analysis
What is Consequence Modelling? Dispersion, Fire and Explosion Simulation Explained
Process Pulse Team · 9 December 2025
In short: Consequence modelling is the quantitative simulation of the physical effects — gas dispersion, fire, and explosion — resulting from a loss-of-containment event, used to determine hazard footprint distances.
Consequence modelling begins with the source term — the rate, duration, and phase of material released — which is the single most influential input to the accuracy of all downstream modelling.
Depending on the release type, dispersion modelling uses light-gas or heavy-gas (dense cloud) models, accounting for wind speed, atmospheric stability class, and terrain, to predict how a toxic or flammable concentration spreads over distance and time.
If the released material ignites, fire modelling (jet fire, pool fire, flash fire) or explosion modelling (vapour cloud explosion, BLEVE) is used to predict thermal radiation or overpressure contours.
These hazard footprints feed directly into QRA risk integration, HAZID siting decisions, fire and explosion risk assessments, and emergency response planning distances.